Given the policy changes and student survey responses outlined above, one may expect to already be seeing changes to international student demand. The below graph depicts international student search demand for the four destination countries on IDP Connects global sites, providing insight into how – and in some cases whether – recent policy announcements are affecting student demand ahead of the Crossroads V survey.
Demand for Australia had slightly declined from February to mid-April, at which time Australia seemed unlikely to open its borders to international students until 2022 at the earliest. However, since the week beginning 12th April traffic for Australia began to recover, with a notable spike from the week beginning the 26th April to the week beginning 10th of May. Traffic also began a more gradual but consistent increase since the week beginning 31st May, correlating with announcements from Australian authorities regarding the potential plans to gradually re-open the border to international students through phased pilot programmes.
Interestingly, the gradual increase in demand for Australia seems to have been unaffected by the introduction of new lockdowns, suggesting students are either more focused on the positive news about pilot schemes being developed and confident that the lockdowns will be temporary or less aware of the recent lockdowns.
Should the Australian government proceed with the suggested border policies for international students and provide additional details on the plans, these early signs of recovery coupled with the demand we have seen in our surveys indicates a strong recovery of demand for Australia is likely, potentially at the expense of other destinations.
Canada has remained the most popular study destination on IDP Connect sites in 2021 and seen an overall upward trend in its share of searches since the end of April 2021. However, surprisingly, a small dip in % share of searches at the end of May appears to correlate with the recent announcements on removing the quarantine and making travel to Canada easier for international students. It may be that international students feel these policies have not gone far enough to reduce costs and do not help overcome visa challenges, or that the news has not effectively been communicated to student markets and is therefore being overshadowed by the announcements of other countries thus far.
Canada was the top second-choice destination for both Australia and the USA, and its recent decline in traffic may suggest that demand for Canada has already been slightly affected by the possible reopening of Australia and recent concessions for student entry in the USA. Furthermore, where Canada saw declines in demand over the 2021 period, such as the week commencing 22nd March, this was matched by an upward spike in demand for the USA. While these trends are only slight at present, they may indicate a threat to the Canadian share of demand should the plans to reopen Australia proceed and the international-student-friendly policies of both competitor destinations be communicated well to international student markets. The extent to which international applicants and offer holders are aware of these policies and their perceptions of Canada will therefore be a key finding of the Crossroads V research.
For both the USA and the UK traffic has remained consistent over the course of the year so far. While stability of international student demand is positive in some ways, the fact that both countries’ recent policy announcements and vaccine rollout success are failing to significantly impact on demand could suggest that messaging is not effectively permeating source markets. Furthermore, while the uptick in Australian student interest is only small now, both destinations may feel a sting if Australia’s plans to re-open to international students are successful, particularly if Canada is able to capitalise on its 2021 demand growth and the new policies being introduced at the same time.
While international demand is recovering, that recovery is gradual and is being hampered by new strains and outbreaks. The finite nature of international students seeking overseas studies is particularly pronounced now, and growth for one destination can currently only come at the cost of another. To remain competitive and grow market share in the coming months, institutions in all destinations need to consider how they can lobby for better policies, what actions they can take at an institution and sector level to support international students, and how they can ensure that positive destination news for international students is transmitted to the global markets successfully. Our Crossroads V research will highlight which policies, from vaccinations to quarantining, are most important to students, informing both lobbying of governments and the policies of institutions in each destination country. The survey findings will also provide institutions with a better understanding the global state of play regarding international student demand, enabling them to make predictions about both the September intake and how demand trends are likely to shift into 2022 and beyond.
The Crossroads V research will be published publicly on July XXXXXX. Bespoke survey dashboards will be made available to IQ subscribers later that week. An exclusive Core Partner webinar (APAC) and Core Member webinar (USA, Canada and UK) will take place on the 29th July delivering an even deeper level of insight via our in-house experts.
Tracking demand
Using the IQ demand tracker tools institutions can break down the trends in international student demand for their own country and their competitor countries by source market. This insight may become particularly important for international student recruitment strategies as the impact of varying travel restrictions on specific markets, such as India, or the creation of “bubbles” with countries such as the proposals between Australia and Singapore, have the potential to dramatically influence student demand. After each of our Crossroads surveys, a bespoke survey dashboard is also provided for IQ subscribers allowing institutions to dig into the data that is most relevant to them. To request a demo of the IQ subscription tools, or to discuss how your institution can act based on the insights revealed here, reach out to our teams today.
