The latest immigration data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that immigration levels have already exceeded the October federal budget’s forecast:
The ABS’ breakdown on the contributors to Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) in the 2021-22 financial year showed that international students drove the rebound. Specifically, 109,000 net student visa arrivals landed in Australia over the financial year, which was the second highest intake on record behind 2008-09 when 122,000 net students arrived:
Accordingly, international students accounted for around two-thirds of Australia’s 171,000 NOM in 2021-22.
Since then, international student visa arrivals have ballooned, which has driven the annual growth in temporary visas to all-time highs, according to the latest Population Statement from the Centre for Population:
The Centre noted that “the number of temporary visa holders in Australia has partially recovered due to an increase in temporary visa arrivals, particularly international students, since December 2021”.
“Offshore student visa grants from January to October 2022 were higher than the corresponding period since the 2006 calendar year. Increased access to post-study work options may contribute to stronger future demand for student visas. Unrestricted work rights for students were extended in September 2022, and are planned to end in June 2023, which may contribute to some increased demand in the short-term”.
According to first assistant secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, Michael Willard, the federal government has processed a record number of student visa applications since the middle of 2022:
Immigration boss Michael Willard told an International Education Association of Australia symposium that his department had finalised a record 217,000 overseas applications for student visas in the latter half of 2022, after the government boosted its visa-processing workforce by almost 500.
Mr Willard, first assistant secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, said requests for visas were being addressed more quickly than they were being submitted, even though fresh applications were arriving in record numbers…
Melissa Banks, head of international education at the Australian Trade and Investment Commission, said offshore student visa applications had increased by around 44 per cent. “Australia’s recovery is gaining momentum and approaching pre-pandemic levels,” she said…
Former department of immigration deputy secretary, Abul Rizvi, said it all in the below Tweet:
More than 360,000 visa applications were lodged overseas by students last year. That’s an “all-time record”, according to Rizvi, that “far exceeded” pre-pandemic levels.
The primary driver of the surge in student visa applications, according to Rizvi, was the federal government’s decision to grant unlimited work rights, which has turned student visas into low-skilled work visas.
We all know where this ends for wages. A November 2021 report by the Migrant Workers Centre, entitled “Lives in Limbo”, found 65% of workers on temporary visas suffered from wage theft. Most were also international students:
The growth of temporary migration programs since the 1990s has turned Australia into a guest worker state. Almost eight per cent of the population stay on temporary visas…
Australia’s migration policy encourages migrant workers to sign up for Australian education…
Interview participants unanimously stated that the Student visa was the most approachable visa… Half (50.0%) of the survey participants came to Australia on a Student visa…
64.8% of the survey participants on temporary visas experienced wage theft while working in Australia…
90.9% of migrant workers who experienced wage theft in Australia had first arrived on a temporary visa that had no pathway to permanent residency such as the Student visa or Working Holiday visa.
And for rents, which are exploding. The impact is particularly evident across the major capital cities’ unit markets, which are experiencing unprecedented price growth:
Clearly, 2023 is shaping up to be a record year of immigration into Australia, driven by international students. Accordingly, rental markets will tighten further, driving rents higher and placing tenants into extreme financial stress.
It is a housing and inequality disaster brought about by dumb government policy that encourages quantity of immigration over quality.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also Chief Economist and co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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