International students account for about 50 per cent of the migration intake this year.
The rebound in migration is showing up strongly in official data, which reveal net inflows of 303,700 migrants in the 12 months to September 2022, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Net migration turned negative in 2021 when Australia closed its borders and temporary residents returned home.
The overwhelming driver of the recent increase in net overseas migration has been a rebound in the number of people living in Australia on student visas.
Between March 2020 and December 2021, Australia experienced a net outflow of about 250,000 students, which took the number of people living locally on student visas as low as 316,000.
But the resumption of international travel has seen that figure rebound.
There are now 583,000 people on student visas, according to data from Home Affairs, representing a 225,000 increase in the financial year to March.
Despite the influx of students, the number of people on student visas is still below the 634,000 level reached in September 2019, suggesting the number may climb further.
Asked about the migration surge, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Friday that it was payback from pandemic-era border closures.
“For example, there are 60,000 students from China who are enrolled in courses in Australia. All of those were online. Guess what, they’re coming back.
“So, if you look at the numbers for this year, they’re high. But that’s in recognition of the fact that the borders were closed previously, so the population is lower today substantially than it would have been in terms of the projections that were there prior to the pandemic,” Mr Albanese said.
Working holidaymakers are another major driver of the increase in migration.
The number of working holidaymaker visas stands at 137,000, up from its 2021 low of 19,000, and a 96,000 increase in the financial year to March.
There has also been a net increase in the nine months to March of 66,000 migrants on either temporary skilled work or temporary skill shortage visas, reversing pandemic-era declines.
Former immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi said he expected net overseas migration to fall substantially next financial year.
“All the special COVID rules will would have expired by then,” Mr Rizvi said.
“Secondly, I think the actions the government is already taking tightening student visas will start to impact, and then there are the various other changes that government has announced, which will progressively be implemented.
“And I suspect we are probably going to see a weaker labor market in financial year 23-24.”
Despite the surge, Treasury does not expect Australia’s migrant population to catch up with its pre-pandemic trend until the end of the decade.
On current trends, there will be 315,000 fewer migrants in Australia by June 2023 than there would have been based on 2019 forecasts.
And while it is a record in absolute terms, as a share of the population, it is about half the size of the population rebound following the Spanish Influenza 100 years ago.
